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☆ Morning Bid: November bids adieu with inflation data, OPEC
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. With signs of turn emerging in Federal Reserve policy guidance and October PCE inflation readings set to encourage that later in the day, rate cut fever was in full flow across the Atlantic too. Headline annual inflation in the bloc fell as low as 2.4% - within arm's length of the ECB's 2% target. Later on Thursday, U.S. PCE inflation for the prior month is pencilled to fall 3.0% from 3.4% - with a core also ebbing to 3.5%. "Monetary policy is in a good place," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Wednesday, echoing comments from previously hawkish Fed governor Christopher Waller the previous day.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, policymaker Fabio Panetta, Loretta Mester, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Christine Lagarde, Megan Greene, Kroger, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of Italy, policymaker, U.S ., ECB, Cleveland Fed, Wall, OPEC, Dallas Fed, PMI, York Federal, Bank of England, Academy Sports, Rock Biotech, Titan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Canada, Vienna, Automotive, Duluth, BOS, Jan

☆ Wall St Week Ahead After breathtaking surge, US stocks' path may rest on economic soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? The index is now up nearly 18% for the year and less than 2% away from its year-high, reached in July. Analysts at Ned Davis Research, which has been recommending an overweight to stocks, this week said investors should further shift into equities and away from bonds. One source of worry has been a renewed climb in stocks' valuations.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, ”, Yung, Yu Ma, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, ” Robert Pavlik, Pavlik, Seasonality, LSEG Datastream, Jason Pride, Keith Lerner, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, BMO Wealth Management, National Association of Active Investment, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, “, CPI, Dakota Wealth, Nvidia, Advisory Services, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Wall St Week Ahead - After breathtaking surge, U.S. stocks' path may rest on economic soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? The index is now up 17% for the year and about 6% from its record closing high from January 2022. Analysts at Ned Davis Research, which has been recommending an overweight to stocks, this week said investors should further shift into equities and away from bonds. One source of worry has been a renewed climb in stocks' valuations.

☆ Investors increase holdings of weight-loss drug makers’ shares in Q3 -filings
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Carolina Mandl | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Some big investors showed increased appetite for weight-loss drug makers in the third quarter, piling in to shares of Eli Lilly (LLY.N) and Novo Nordisk amid growing demand for their product, securities filings showed on Tuesday. Shares of Eli Lilly rose 14.5% in the third quarter and are up 67% this year. Some investors also bought more American Depositary Receipts of Novo Nordisk, including Fidelity Investments, Lazard Asset Management, T Rowe Price and Soros Fund. Novo Nordisk on Saturday presented data showing that the heart protective benefits of Wegovy are not solely due to weight loss, which could make it easier for healthcare insurance reimbursement in the future. Still, other investors trimmed their exposure to Eli Lilly, such as Wellington Management Group, California Public Employees Retirement System and Bridgewater Associates.

Persons: Eli Lilly, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, JPMorgan Chase, Eli Lilly's, Rowe Price, Marshall Wace, LSEG, “ Stocks, ”, Vincent Aita, Carolina Mandl, Ira Iosebashvili, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Novo Nordisk, Novo, JPMorgan, Vanguard, Sigma, Tiger Global Management, Coatue Management, U.S . Food, Drug Administration, Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, Bank of America, Fidelity Investments, Lazard Asset Management, Soros Fund, Wellington Management Group, California, Bridgewater Associates, Marshall, Renaissance Technologies, Capital Management, Pfizer, Carolina, Thomson Locations: BlackRock, U.S, New York

That has left Italian equities overall more cheaply valued than even battered UK shares (.dMIGB00000PUS), which are trading at a 33% discount to global peers. Goldman Sachs estimates that each 10 bps rise in sovereign spreads takes around 2% off Italian bank shares and 1.5% off the FTSE MIB index. Conflict in Ukraine and in the Middle East meanwhile threaten to spark a fresh surge in energy prices and weaken growth. UniCredit shares are up almost 80% this year and among the best performing euro zone banking shares. Fidelity International portfolio manager Alberto Chiandetti, said he was chasing opportunities in battered industrials and consumer sectors in the FTSE Italia Star index.

Persons: Claudia Greco, Chris Hiorns, Fitch, Goldman Sachs, Giuseppe Sersale, Andrea Scauri, Lemanik, Scauri, LSEG, Alberto Chiandetti, Joice Alves, Danilo Masoni, Dhara Ranasinghe, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, Companies, LONDON, Barclays, European Commission, FTSE Italia Star, Anthilia, Banco, Fidelity International, FTSE, Thomson Locations: Milan, Silicon, Italy, Companies Italy, MILAN, Germany, Ukraine, iShares, Europe, dei, London

☆ Morning Bid: Amazon and goldilocks ride to the rescue
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Unlike the reaction to similarly decent results from some of its Big Tech peers this week, shares in the online retail giant Amazon climbed 5% after hours. And both Nasdaq and S&P500 futures were set to bounce into the weekend later after the cash markets closed at their lowest since May. With nominal U.S. growth running at close to 8%, depending on which inflation gauge you use, the heat is impressive. And even the racy headline GDP growth rate was below many assumptions of a 5%-plus print. That bond relief has perhaps flattered the overnight stocks bounce - although on aggregate the earnings season is pretty decent too.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, megacaps, Wang Yi, crumb, Sanofi, TRowe Price, Stanley Black, Decker, CBRE, Christine Lagarde, Jane Merriman Organizations: Chevron Corp, Hess Corp, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Amazon, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Big, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Apple, of Japan, European Central Bank, Britain's NatWest, Financial, Authority, University of Michigan, Colgate, Palmolive, Xcel Energy, Charter Communications, Phillips, Central Bank, European Union Summit, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, United States, China, Syria, Europe, Dallas, Abbvie, LyondellBasell, Brussels

☆ Analysis: Wall Street's 'Magnificent Seven' face moment of truth as earnings season arrives
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Valuations have swelled, with the Magnificent Seven trading at an average forward price-to-earnings ratio of 33.5, compared with the S&P 500's P/E of 18.3. “Everybody knows these guys are going to make money," said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII), referring to the Magnificent Seven. "The reallocation of funds going forward is going to suggest lower returns and more difficulty for the Magnificent Seven to maintain their leadership." The seven companies' combined market capitalization topped 30% of the S&P 500's overall market value earlier this month, according to LSEG Datastream. Some investors are also drawing distinctions among the seven stocks.

Persons: Aly, Tesla, Sameer Samana, Tajinder Dhillon, Tim Pagliara, CapWealth, Pagliara, Elon Musk, LSEG Datastream, Torsten Slok, Patrick Kaser, Kaser, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Apple, REUTERS, Microsoft, Nvidia, U.S, Tesla, Wells, Investment Institute, Google, Facebook, Federal, Treasury, “, Global, Apollo Global Management, Brandywine Global, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Apple

The Wall Street sign is pictured at the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., March 9, 2020. Seven megacap stocks -- Apple (AAPL.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O), Amazon (AMZN.O), Nvidia (NVDA.O), Tesla (TSLA.O) and Meta Platforms (META.O) -- have led broader markets higher this year. Their rising stock prices ballooned valuations, however, and some investors say the megacaps could be vulnerable if climbing bond yields keep pressuring stocks. "When the big tech stocks start going down ... the indexes go down," said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. Still, strategists point out that the rise in implied volatility for tech stocks is no more than for the broader market.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, megacaps, LSEG, Matt Maley, Miller, ”, Matt Stucky, Chris Murphy, Rick Meckler, J, Bryant Evans, ” Evans, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Federal Reserve, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Nasdaq, Susquehanna Financial Group, Amazon, Cherry Lane Investments, Cozad Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, New Jersey

☆ Morning Bid: Spiky quarter ends in uneasy market calm
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. At 4.53% on Friday, the 10-year benchmark was some 15 basis points off Thursday's peak and two-year yields fell back to their lowest since Sept. 18. Some optimism from Beijing about a possible year-end summit between President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden helped. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:* US August PCE inflation gauge, personal income and spending. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Thursday's, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, Lifeng, Federal Reserve's, Jerome Powell, Thomas Barkin, it's, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, John Williams, Toby Chopra Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Organization of, Petroleum, Wall Street Journal, Federal, Fed, Richmond Fed, Nike, HK, Reuters, Mercedes, Benz, Chicago, University of, Louis Federal Reserve, New York Fed, U.S, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Beijing, China, Washington, Hong Kong, Nio

☆ China Risks Property Debt
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Source: China Real Estate Information Corp. (CRIC)The physical size of Country Garden’s real estate portfolio is enormous. The Weight of Debt The ballooning debt crisis could delay the prospect of a recovery of both the property market and the broader Chinese economy, in which real estate is a core pillar. China property sector slump China’s property sales, investment and funds raised by property developers slid in January - August 2023 after a sharp fall in 2022. China's property sector accounts for more than half of global new home sales and home building, according to Nomura. Any contraction in the property sector will affect China’s growth, thus sending ripple effects around the globe as the world’s factory slows.

Persons: Evergrande, homebuyers, Nomura, David Stanway, Jason Lee, –, Moody's, Yawen Chen, Amr Alfiky Organizations: Country, Garden, Estate Information Corp, CIFI Holdings, Sunac, National Bureau of Statistics, China, Investment, REUTERS, International Monetary Fund, Nomura, JPMorgan, Dubai, National Bureau of Economic Research Locations: China, Burj, Burj Khalifa, Sunac China, Kunming, Yunnan province, Beijing, Xuchang, Henan province, United Arab Emirates

☆ Take Five: An inflationary dilemma
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The week ahead brings more evidence of how much progress is left for developed-economy policymakers, while in the emerging world, India is set to enter the bond-market big time and a raft of central banks wrestle with a dilemma. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.3% in the 12 months through July. Line chart with data from LSEG Datastream show the U.S.'s inflation on personal consumption expenditures (PCE), core PCE inflation and the federal funds target rate from 2019 to 2023. Reuters Graphics5\ASIA'S CURRENCY CONUNDRUMAsian central banks have a dilemma: how to handle weakening economic growth and peaking inflation, while arresting the slide in currencies to maintain stability in their financial systems. But much may rest on decisions of other central banks further afield, namely the Federal Reserve.

Persons: Lewis Krauskopf, Naomi Rovnick, Karin Strohecker, Amanda Cooper, Perry Warjiyo, Toby Chopra Organizations: Federal, Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters, CLUB India, JPMorgan, Russell, Bank of, Bank, Thailand, Reserve, Thomson Locations: India, Vidya Ranganathan, Singapore, New York, London, Washington, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Bank of Indonesia, Philippine

☆ Nvidia, other US chip stocks stall over valuation, industry worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The nVIDIA booth is shown at the E3 2017 Electronic Entertainment Expo in Los Angeles, California, U.S. June 13, 2017. Chip stocks soared to start the year, with the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index (.SOX) rising over 50% through July. With "some of the names that really have catapulted to the top, now you are starting to question valuations,” Mahn said. Of course, many chip stocks are sitting on substantial gains for the year and this month may only be a temporary setback. “I do believe there are opportunities in semiconductor stocks going forward," Mahn said.

Persons: Mike Blake, “, Lip, LSEG Datastream, Kevin Mahn, ” Mahn, Taiwan's, chipmaker, Mahn, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: nVIDIA, REUTERS, Nvidia, Philadelphia, Semiconductor, Wealth Management, Hennion, Walsh Asset Management, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Lam Research, Applied, KLA Corp, Arm Holdings, Devices, Broadcom, Thomson Locations: Los Angeles , California, U.S, United States, China, Washington

☆ Analysis: Sizzling rally in US energy stocks has room to run, bulls say
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Some believe a tight oil market and resilient U.S. growth will keep energy stocks rising for the rest of 2023. Bullish investors argue that energy stocks are still cheap by historical standards - and far less richly valued than other areas of the market. The energy sector currently trades at a forward price to earnings ratio of 12.2, well below its historical median forward P/E of 15.3, according to LSEG Datastream. Parts of the market appear skeptical energy stocks have much further to run. "That should result in a ... smoother ride for energy stocks than we’ve been accustomed to."

Persons: Bing Guan, LSEG, Charles Lemonides, Baker Hughes, Savita Subramanian, Brent, Bjarne Schieldrop, Rodney Clayton, we’ve, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Exxon, Mobil, REUTERS, Energy, West Texas, Federal, drillers, U.S . Energy, Administration, Global, Citi, Brent, SEB Research, Macquarie, Duff, Phelps Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Beaumont , Texas, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China

☆ Morning Bid: Fed vigil sees oil recoil and UK surprise
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Canada's consumer prices raced ahead at an unexpectedly brisk clip last month, but outlier Britain got a positive surprise as inflation there fell back in August. Starts swooned last month, but building permits - which many see as a better gauge of future activity - beat forecasts and pushed higher. Although Asia bourses were in the red earlier, European stocks pushed higher and Wall St futures were positive ahead of the open too. Relief in the oil market pulled two-year Treasury yields back about 5 basis points from two-month highs at 5.12%. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Wednesday:* U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision, new economic projections and press conference.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Asia bourses, Mills, Toby Chopra Organizations: Federal Reserve, People's Bank of China, Bank of England, Fed, Friday's Bank of Japan, Arm Holdings, U.S, New, . Federal, Bank of Canada, FedEx, United Nations General Assembly, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Housing, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Europe, New York City, New York

But the essence of the argument is that lower bond volatility ups the amount of cash liquidity flowing around world markets, and vice versa. But it is the incremental movement in this giant pool that arguably matters most for stock markets and asset prices. Even though global liquidity is shrinking as you might expect in the face of rising Western interest rates, central bank balance sheet reduction and a higher dollar, other offsets are significant. But falling bond volatility has likely played a big part in softening the blow too. "The two together have helped overall liquidity conditions - but we are mindful that bond markets are likely to remain volatile and need to be monitored carefully."

Persons: CrossBorder, Mike Dolan, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Federal Reserve, coy, Treasury, Fed, Bank, People's Bank of, New York Fed, Reuters Graphics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, punchbowl, People's Bank of China, United States

☆ Take Five: A central bank bonanza
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Now it's the turn of the world's most important central bank. Also on Thursday, the Bank of England is tipped to hike for the 15th consecutive meeting, taking benchmark borrowing costs to 5.5%. Norway's central bank is also expected to nudge benchmark borrowing costs higher, following a 25 bps rise in August to 4%. Reuters Graphics4/ DIVERGING TRAJECTORIESThe push and pull factors on central banks are nowhere more visible than in emerging markets. But for Turkey's central bank, convening on Thursday, the only way is up.

Persons: Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Amanda Cooper, Naomi Rovnick, Karin Strohecker, Jerome Powell, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, hypothesise, Tayyip Erdogan, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: U.S . Federal, ECB, Bank of England, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Japan's, of Finance, Thomson Locations: Central, Lewis, New York, Tokyo, London, United States, Europe, Scandinavia, Switzerland, Norway's, Latin America, South Africa, Egypt, Taiwan

☆ Wall St Week Ahead: Last Fed hike tends to aid stocks, but some have doubts this time
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The market will probably cheer it a bit if it is the end of the Fed rate hike cycle," said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. Traders see a roughly two-out-of three chance of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in November, CME's data showed. Odds for December show about a 60% chance rates of rates staying at current levels. Analysts at Oxford Economics forecast further downside for global earnings, noting that stocks "have typically delivered far weaker returns following the final Fed rate hike when it has coincided with an EPS downturn." "But I'm not sure how sustainable it would be given where stocks are valued relative to bonds already."

Persons: Brendan McDermid, CFRA, Brent Schutte, Schutte, Jerome Powell, Sam Stovall, LSEG Datastream, Jack Ablin, I'm, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, Fed, Oxford Economics, Equity, Treasury, Cresset, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Oxford

☆ Investors glimpse opportunity in Europe's unloved mining shares
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The metals and mining sector is typically used as a proxy for equity investors in Europe to gain exposure to China, given it is the world's largest commodities consumer, and it has sunk along with China's growth expectations. But Beijing in recent weeks has taken targeted steps towards supporting key pockets of its economy, lifting the mining sector off its 31-month lows. In the last month, the mining index has risen nearly 10% compared with a gain of just 2.5% for the wider STOXX 600. Sweeney says this wide range of measures could be a catalyst for an upturn in the metals and mining sector. "Obviously, the 800-pound gorilla from a primary metal demand perspective is China," Peter Mallin-Jones, mining analyst at UK investment bank Peel Hunt, said.

Persons: Ints, Nathan Sweeney, multiasset, Sweeney, LSEG, Peter Mallin, Peel Hunt, Jones, Daniel Major, Marlborough Investment Management's Sweeney, Samuel Indyk, Amanda Cooper, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: REUTERS, Equity, Marlborough Investment Management, Miners, London Metal, Morningstar, UBS, Rio Tinto, BHP Group, Major, Marlborough Investment, Thomson Locations: Garpenberg, Sweden, China, LONDON, Europe, Beijing, Singapore, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, United States, Rio, Antofagasta, Rio Tinto, Marlborough

☆ Morning Bid: Retail sales and a call to Arm
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A sharply lower number might be seen by markets as giving confidence to the Federal Reserve that its work is done. Consumer inflation data on Wednesday - the most important scheduled release of the week - did little to change expectations the Fed will not rates interest rates at next week's meeting. Thursday's main event globally is the ECB rate decision. Ahead of the decision the euro was up a touch against the dollar, but near a three month low at $1.0739. Chinese auto makers' shares fell on the news of the European probe, as did European car makers after the Chinese response.

Persons: Kate Masters, Alun John, you've, Toby Chopra Organizations: company's Herald, REUTERS, Central Bank, Federal Reserve, European Commission, Arm Holdings, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Macy's, company's, New York City, U.S, Thursday's, Europe, Beijing, European

☆ European retailers risk dressing-down from investors as consumers flinch
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Reuters GraphicsThe broader STOXX 600 (.STOXX) is up by 7% this year, meaning retailers are outperforming by the most on record. The snag is that this stellar run has been partly built on investors unwinding bearish bets, or short positions, on retail stocks, after last year's pessimism proved overdone. This means retail stocks might not see as many willing buyers as earlier this year. Jones expects retail stocks to fall in the second half of the year. JPMorgan downgraded the grocery retail sector this month and flagged the prospect of price declines going into 2024.

Persons: Inditex, unwinding, Benjamin Jones, Jones, Florian Ielpo, Ielpo, WH Smith, Alexandre Bompard, LSEG, Joice Alves, Amanda Cooper, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Reuters, Macro, Multi, Management, Carrefour, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: Zara, bullish, LSEG, Britain

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